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Global stock markets rebounded last week, rising 2.6%. In the UK, all eyes were on the Autumn Budget, which was generally viewed as not as bad as feared, though it will introduce further tax increases.
This week, attention turns to consumer-confidence-led macro data, remaining Q3 corporate earnings, and developments in AI.
Last week
- Global equities ended higher, led by the US (+2.7%), with no major market finishing the week in negative territory.
- Trading was quieter due to Thanksgiving, while OPEC+ held oil output steady.
- In Emerging Markets, Chinese manufacturing data softened again, while India’s GDP beat expectations.
- The UK’s Autumn Budget was in focus on Wednesday. It was reflected on as a stealth budget and less punitive than expected, although tax rises remained a theme.
This week
- With the US government re-opened and Q3 earnings season largely behind us, the focus is back on macro data: Manufacturing and Services PMIs, consumer sentiment, and personal spending.
- Black Friday strength will be analysed, particularly the role AI played in supporting online sales, and whether Cyber Monday can deliver similar momentum.
- Remaining Q3 earnings continue, with updates due from major Canadian Banks, Salesforce, Ulta Beauty and Lululemon.
Late on Friday, Airbus announced a recall of its A320. Portfolio exposure is limited, but we will monitor news flow and market reaction.
Source: Bloomberg. Currency GBP.
More details:
Global equities extended their strong year to date returns after a brief pause the week prior. The US led gains, with major Western markets up more than 2%. Japan and Emerging Markets posted more modest but still positive returns.
- AI remains a key driver of US equity performance, though tech sector returns were mixed. Alphabet and Meta rose nearly 10% (in USD) after Meta disclosed plans to use Google’s AI chips – raising competition concerns for Nvidia, alongside valuation worries and consideration of whether this signals a shift in AI chip purchasing trends. We have also seen share price weakness in AMD & Palantir over the past couple weeks.
- India and Canada GDP both exceeded forecasts.
- China’s factory activity contracted for an eighth consecutive month. Alibaba beat revenue expectations but reported a significant profit decline; Baidu announced layoffs following losses; and BYD recalled nearly 90,000 plug-in hybrids over battery safety concerns.
The weekend marked the start of the festive shopping season – starting with Black Friday, followed by Cyber Monday (today).
- Early data indicates a strong Black Friday, with online sales up year-on-year, supported by AI tools helping consumers locate deals more efficiently.
- Cyber Monday expectations are similarly robust.
Looking ahead:
- In the US: Manufacturing PMIs (Monday), Services PMIs (Wednesday), and Consumer Sentiment (Friday) are due, alongside personal income and spending data.
- With Chinese factory activity still shrinking, Chinese Manufacturing PMIs are expected to signal tentative expansion.
- Globally, we will be tracking Eurozone inflation, Japanese consumer confidence, and Australian GDP data, to name but a few.
- On earnings, only a small number of companies are left to report Q3 figures, including several major Canadian banks.
- To end the week, Microsoft will be holding its Annual General Meeting (AGM) on Friday.
The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you could get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.
The content of this article is not intended to be or does not constitute investment research as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content should also not be relied upon when making investment decisions, and at no point should the information be treated as specific advice. The article has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific client, person, or entity.
