Weekly Round-Up, 1st September 2025

Global stock markets fell modestly in the last week of August but did manage to post small gains for the month: rising by 0.4%. UK stock markets had a weak end to the month but rose by 0.9% in the month of August, with index heavyweights in sectors such as Healthcare and Oil & Gas boosting gains.

Last week the focus was very much on the US and Nvidia in particular, with the world’s largest company posting decent earnings numbers. There were also some strong US economic growth numbers last week amidst ratcheting pressure from President Trump to push the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates: with the President moving to fire one of the Fed Governors!

This week the focus remains on the US, with the much-watched monthly jobs data due out on Friday. The UK economic calendar is quiet, with Friday’s retail sales numbers being the highlight.

Last week

• Global equities sold off modestly, but posted small gains for the month of August
• Nvidia’s much anticipated corporate results were solid but not spectacular
• US Corporate earnings season is mostly done, with very positive overall growth numbers
• US growth data came in strong, whilst inflation was in line with expectations
• President Trump put downward pressure on US interest rates: announcing he would be firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook

This week

• The focus remains on the US, with the much-watched monthly jobs numbers (non-farm payrolls) due out on Friday
• UK retail sales are also released on Friday
• Eurozone inflation data is out on Tuesday

Source: Bloomberg. Currency GBP.

More details:

• Global stock markets had a fairly flat week (falling by 0.2%), which rounded off a fairly flat month: rising by 0.4% in August. UK stocks fared better in August, up by 0.9% in August, despite having a poor week (down by 1.5%) to round the month off.

• Nvidia’s corporate results were the big event of last week. Nvidia is the biggest publicly traded company in the world, representing nearly 8% of the US share index and just over 5.5% of the global share index. This compares to just a 3.6% weighting in the global share index for the entire UK share index, hence Nvidia’s results are market moving and very closely watched!

• Nvidia’s results were very solid (beating analysts’ estimates for both earnings and revenue) but they were not spectacular: revenues grew at 56% within the last year (making for 9 straight quarters of revenue growth of greater than 50%). A great number, but less than the annual growth rates of over 200% that we saw in the back end of 2023 and early 2024. Despite falling 2% on the week, Nvidia remains up over 20% for the year-to-date, following gains of 176% in 2024 and 221% in 2023 (all numbers in GBP).

• US Corporate earnings have been very strong in this quarter, with Nvidia’s results being amongst the most anticipated. As a cohort, with 81% of companies having now reported (as per data from Factset), the blended year-over-year growth earnings growth rate is 11.9%: which is more than double the 4.8% growth rate which was expected (by analysts) at end June 2025 (i.e. before the companies started reporting).

• Expectations for a US interest rate cut increased last week, with the bond futures market pricing in an 88% probability of an interest rate cut at the 17^th September Federal Reserve meeting. This came on the back of President Trump’s announcement that he would be firing Fed Governor Lisa Cook, citing allegations of mortgage fraud. Cook has filed a lawsuit to block the firing, and the Fed have said that they will abide by any court decision.

• 2^nd quarter US growth was revised higher last week: to 3.3% annualised from the previous measure of 3.1%. US inflation (core PCE) came out in line with expectations at 2.9%: this is the Federal Reserve’s preferred measure of inflation and hence is an important metric.

The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you could get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

The content of this article is not intended to be or does not constitute investment research as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content should also not be relied upon when making investment decisions, and at no point should the information be treated as specific advice. The article has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific client, person, or entity.