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    Weekly Round-Up, 15th September 2025

    Global stock markets had a solid week, with Emerging Markets continuing their strong performance. The Nasdaq reached another all-time high, though sterling weakness dampened US returns for British investors. Japanese markets also had a strong week, pushing the region’s year-to-date returns into double-digit territory.

    US inflation and the European Central Bank’s (ECB) interest rate decision were the key macroeconomic events last week, though neither surprised the market. The real surprises came from corporate earnings updates: Oracle’s stock surged 36%, while Synopsys dropped 36%.

    Looking ahead, this week will be pivotal for monetary policy, with four major central banks expected to announce interest rate decisions.

     

    Last week

    • Equity markets: Global stock markets had another good week, led by Japan and Emerging Markets. UK and Europe remain the regional highlights year-to-date
    • Corporate Earnings Surprises: Oracle shocked markets with a 36% jump in its share price following strong earnings, while Synopsys saw a 36% drop after disappointing results.
    • US Inflation Data: The CPI data, released Thursday, came in at +2.9%, as expected, offering little surprise ahead of the Federal Reserve’s meeting.
    • ECB Decision: The European Central Bank kept its key interest rate unchanged at 2%, aligning with market expectations.
    • UK Economic Data: UK GDP growth for the 3 months to July was flat at 0.2%, matching market consensus.

     

    This week

    • Central Bank Decisions: The US, Canada, UK, and Japan will all announce interest rate decisions this week, making it a critical time for global monetary policy.
    • UK Data: Key data points include the unemployment rate (expected at 4.7%) on Tuesday, August inflation (expected to rise slightly to 3.9%) on Wednesday, and retail sales on Friday.
    • US Data: A busy week for the US, with retail sales for August on Tuesday, followed by housing data on Wednesday and the Fed’s interest rate decision.
    • Earnings to Watch: Next (UK) and FedEx (US) will be in focus this week for their earnings updates.

    Source: Bloomberg. Currency GBP.

     

    More details:

    Global equities remain on an upward trajectory, with standout performances from Japan and Emerging Markets. While key macroeconomic data points like US inflation and the ECB’s rate decision met expectations, corporate earnings have been a source of market volatility. This week promises more market-moving events, particularly as central banks across major economies set the stage for future monetary policy shifts.

    • Global stock markets gained about 1.3% last week, driven by Japan (+3.4%) and Emerging Markets (+3.2%) in sterling terms. Europe and the UK continue to be the top performers for 2025 so far. While the Nasdaq closed at another record high, US market returns in British Pounds are still affected by the strength of the dollar. Despite media coverage of US equities hitting all-time highs, they’re up just 4.3% year-to-date in GBP terms.

     

    • The week’s biggest earnings surprises came from Oracle and Synopsys. Oracle surprised markets by announcing a $300bn cloud partnership with OpenAI, causing its stock to soar by over 40% before settling at a 36% gain for the day. In contrast, Synopsys dropped 36% after announcing weak earnings, pointing to US-China trade tensions for the sales slump. The company’s earnings per share were 10% below expectations. Both stocks saw partial reversals as the week progressed: Synopsys rebounded 13% the following day, while Oracle declined 6% and 5% over the following two trading days.

     

    • Political concerns rose in the UK, US, and France last week. On Friday, Fitch downgraded France’s sovereign credit rating from AA- to A+, citing political instability and rising debt levels. Pressure is mounting on each nation’s leader to restore calm.

     

    • UK GDP growth for the 3 months to July was flat at 0.2%, matching market consensus. However, industrial and manufacturing production showed a contraction, with year-on-year GDP slightly under expectations at 1.4%. In housing, the RICS House Price Balance indicated pressure on prices due to weaker buyer demand.

     

    • This week is critical for bond markets, with major central banks meeting to discuss interest rates. The US, Canada, and Brazil will announce their decisions on Wednesday, while the Bank of England will decide on Thursday and the Bank of Japan on Friday. Bond futures have been pricing in a US rate cut at the September meeting for quite some time. Investors will also be paying attention to the Federal Reserve’s press conference, looking for insights into their view on the deteriorating US labour market. In the UK, interest rates are expected to remain unchanged at 4%.

     

     

    The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you could get back less than you invested. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance.

    The content of this article is not intended to be or does not constitute investment research as defined by the Financial Conduct Authority. The content should also not be relied upon when making investment decisions, and at no point should the information be treated as specific advice. The article has no regard for the specific investment objectives, financial situation or needs of any specific client, person, or entity.